IF the Western world does not tie specific demands to the dollars it is giving away, Egypt will go the way of the Palestinians.
In 2006 the Palestinians held what was touted as their first democratic election and the most un-democratic of parties took the plurality. Hamas, the terrorist organisation, won. Hamas was charged with choosing a prime minister and with carving out a government.
In the end, it didn't totally happen. Mahmoud Abbas, leader of the opposition party Fatah, ousted Hamas's prime minister and unceremoniously inserted his own choice. Hamas revolted and kicked Fatah out of Gaza. Now five years later, in a move understood only by the Palestinian leadership, Fatah and Hamas have forged a unity government.
The Arab world watched what happened in the Palestinian Authority. And the Arab world learned a lesson.
The US along with the rest of the Western world watched, but they did not learn. The US has just pledged $US1 billion dollars to the Egyptians. The G-8 has promised $US40bn to Arab countries willing to implement democratic transformations. The Western world has high hopes for the Arab world and, understandably, the limelight is shining on Egypt. Hosni Mubarak, the brutal dictator, was ousted in February and the ruling military authority in Egypt has promised elections for September. Not just any elections, democratic elections.
But it can't happen. September is only three months from now. More time elapsed from the fall of Mubarak to the call for elections than will elapse from the call for elections to the time of elections. In other words, the Egyptians now running the country took more time to think about calling for elections than they are giving themselves to re-organise, re-orient and re-group for democratic elections which have never been held before in their country.
It's a game. The Egyptian military knows that it cannot happen. It is toying with the West. The military is still busy clamping down on restless protesters and is too busy and too preoccupied to concentrate on laying down the framework for a democratic infrastructure. Even if they had the time, the generals in charge have no inclination to prepare for a democratic election in their new Egypt. They want to hold on to their power for as long as they possibly can. They want to cement their control over the people and convince them that their best chance for a better life comes through continued military rule.
Egypt's generals realise how dangerous democracy can be.
Hamas is to the Palestinian Authority what the Muslim Brotherhood is to the new Egypt. If elections are held in September this Islamic, terrorist, anti-democratic organisation has a significant chance of having a strong turnout. If the Muslim Brotherhood gets its expected 20 per cent of the vote it might become the second most powerful party and the pivotal force of Egypt.
The rule throughout much of Europe is that anti-democratic forces are not permitted to stand for election in new, fledgling democracies. In Germany, in particular, where the tradition of democracy is still new, that rule is strongly enforced. There are clear and unbiased ways of evaluating a political party and their players. Platforms and statements are studied to determine if they express democratic or anti- and un-democratic values and policies. When the Palestinians first spoke of a democratically held election, the US and Israel insisted Hamas be prohibited from participating. But with building pressure came capitulation. The rest is history.
Democracy has but one major responsibility and that is to guard itself against those who want to destroy it.
The most significant lesson of Hitler's rise to power was the two elections of 1932. In both those ballots, Hitler received a plurality, he was democratically elected. When he ascended to power in January of 1933 one the first things Hitler did was pass the Enabling Act, which eliminated democracy. Hitler used democracy to gain power and then destroyed the democracy that put him in place.
If there are to be democratic elections in the Arab world, then first teach them about equality. Teach them to disagree without killing the person with whom you disagree. Teach them to defend the rights of the minority.
Teach them what democracy means. Then, maybe, democracy will have a chance of succeeding in the Arab world. Without that infrastructure, just keep the thugs in place and save a few billion dollars.
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