Divisions over Al Assad's future

While Gulf and western states have taken stands on uprisings in Bahrain, Libya and Yemen, they have refrained from doing so on Syria, despite the brutality of the regime's crackdown on pro-democracy protests.
Western states have not declared that Syria's embattled president Bashar Al Assad has lost legitimacy, Israel has been relatively tight-lipped about its wishes for Syria and Gulf states have not shied away from extending support to his regime.
Al Assad not weak enough to be overthrown
Despite the much repeated cliche in every Arab country facing protests, Syria watchers say this case is different because all parties do not believe Al Assad is weak enough to be overthrown yet.
"Currently there are internal conflicts in Syria [but] there are increasing signals that the regime is going to survive for now,"" said Fadi Salem, a Syrian academic in Dubai.
States that have seen the Al Assad regime as a menace in the region could be avoiding a push for an end to the regime because they would rather see the regime weakened than overthrown, said Burhan Ghalyoun, Syrian sociologist at Paris Sorbonne University.
Democratic
"A democratic Syria may not be in their interest. They want to see Bashar [Al Assad] become weaker so they can pick the fruits of that later," he said.
Gulf states, he said, do not want to be seen siding against the regime, he said. They are afraid of a Syrian reprisal to increased pressure for reform "in fear of having the long arm of the regime's terrorism reach their countries".
"Any attempt at pressuring Al Assad to reform is being interpreted by his regime to be an attack on the country and its security. Gulf states do not want to be in that position," said Ghalyoun.
Grand bargain
It has also been suggested that Gulf states and the West are hoping for a "grand bargain" from a weakened and pragmatic Al Assad, where Gulf states would back him and western states will refrain from condemning his harsh response to the uprisings, in exchange for the Syrian president's abandonment of the ‘Axis of Resistance': Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah.
Such a deal would weaken Iran's influence in the region, potentially relieve Israel from more than one front on its borders, and empower Israel's allies in the Palestinian National Authority as well as the March 14 movement in Lebanon.
Pressure
"They are exerting pressure on Syria to sever its relations with Iran and the Arab resistance. They are saying if you listen to us we will offer you a [way out of the conflict], but Syria has been reluctant to do so," said Abdul Bari Atwan, editor-in-chief of London based Al Quds Al Arabi.
Such a decision, he said, would lie with the top security officials that surround Al Assad, not with the president himself.
"For the time being, I can't see any move towards that direction," he said.
If Syria abandons Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah, added Atwan, "that would change the map of the Middle East and signal an end to armed Arab resistance to Israel".
"Hezbollah will be in a very difficult position. Iranian supply routes will be cut off completely and backing from Syria will vanish. Hamas will be cornered to rot in Gaza," he said. Salem, however, said that Al Assad was unlikely to accept such a bargain as it would severely undermine his regime's credibility, which he said was closely linked to its survival.
"Internally, the support the regime has is because it is seen as a resistance front [against Israel]," he said. Accepting such a deal would therefore leave him with virtually no supporters internally.